WEC Description: February’s job growth was disappointing, but it followed the biggest two-month gain since 2016.
Large caps may be better positioned than small caps, given where we are in the business cycle.
Following such a strong rally since the December 24 lows, a pullback is reasonable to expect.
Our Beige Book Barometer has dropped to its lowest level since the 2011 European debt crisis.
Slow (but steady) growth and accommodative policy have made this expansion especially durable.
Stocks may keep going higher, but the easy gains likely have been made.
We expect growth to stabilize as near-term headwinds subside.
We’ve lowered our 2019 forecasts for Fed policy moves, GDP growth, and rates.
The market rally continues, with stocks off to their best year’s start since 1991.